Saying No

The folks that know me well, understand that I’m a pretty humble guy.  Today I’m going to toot my own horn a little, and share my deepest, closely guarded secret.  If bragging and self-indulgence offend you, then I suggest switching to a different channel.

I’ve had the good fortune to have led two of the most important and foundational planning implementations in retail.  I’ll give you a little background on each, then follow with what I believe are the secrets of success.

First up: Canadian Tire in the mid to late 1990’s.    While the design was essentially what we now call Flowcasting, the implementation focused on the introduction of integrated, time-phased planning from DC to suppliers and linking and collaborating with 1500+ suppliers who, to this day, receive a rolling 39-week projection of planned product purchases.

The implementation was a first in a couple of key areas.  It was the first complete implementation of DRP (Distribution Resource Planning) in retail and also the first widespread use and adoption of supplier scheduling across a retail vendor base.

The solution deployed was Manugistics (now part of JDA) and was also a very early implementation of client-server technology.

The implementation was very successful – improving a number of key metrics like service levels, inventory turns and supplier lead time and delivery performance.

The second implementation was the recently completed implementation of the Flowcasting process at Princess Auto Ltd.  This implementation is a world first.  They are the first retailer to plan their entire, integrated supply chain based on a forecast of consumer demand.  The business is being managed using a single set of numbers and they have achieved the vision outlined in our book (

In terms of results, store in-stock has risen nicely and they consistently have store in-stocks of 97%+, even for promoted products.  Inventories are more productive and the entire business is using the Flowcasting projections to manage to a single set of numbers.

The solution deployed was the Collaborative Flowcasting solution, a joint venture with RedPraire and the Retail Pipeline Integration Group, now also part of JDA.

Obviously, I’m pretty proud of these implementations. While there are a number of things we could have improved upon during the implementations, these two implementations have pushed the thinking and practice of retail supply chain planning and integration.

Now, lean in, real close, for I’m about to share the real secrets of success.

The success of these implementations is a direct result of being able to say…   No.

Great innovations and implementations are, in my opinion, largely a result of being able to say no to suggestions and ideas that don’t support the vision.  Steve Jobs described it as “saying no to a thousand things”.

The same principle applies in supply chain planning and especially the introduction of supporting technologies.

My approach is to build simple designs and only use technology and code where a computer algorithm can do a better job than a human.  Instead of trying to algorithm our way to greatness, the focus is on changing the process and thinking rather than changing computer code.

For example, in my Flowcasting world, I would never allow us to go down the path of ordering product from a supplier at two different lead times – one for regular and one for promotional volumes.   I have consistently said no to this inevitable request – instead, helping the design team understand the complexity of this thinking and, then orienting them to educate and work with suppliers so they can plan and deliver to a single lead time.

This, of course, is just one of many situations where I happily get to say No.  Over time, people begin to realize the impact of saying yes to everything…the design and solution is too cumbersome, too heavy, hard to implement and manage and often collapses under its own weight.

Now, of course I’m not saying to say No to everything suggested.  Usually the suggestions are grounded in decent thinking and needs.  The art is to understand what people need and to deliver the needs, but not necessarily in the manner they have suggested – which, inevitably they do.

Imagine if planning system architects subscribed to the Doherty/Jobs doctrine?

We’d have elegant, simple and intuitive planning solutions – not the complicated, rigid solutions that tend to dominate the market today.

One notable exception was the Flowcasting solution we used during the Princess Auto implementation.  It’s a solution that was designed for Flowcasting from the store/shelf and the architect is also a master at “saying no to a thousand things”.

As a proof point, the initial implementation of the Flowcasting solution was rolled out company-wide using a single business consultant (yours truly) and less than a third of one person’s time from the technology provider, in an elapsed time of 18 months.

Furthermore, the solution was cloud-based and integrated with their existing ERP system using 5 simple integration points (i.e., interfaces) and with No customizations and No system workarounds.

There’s that word No again.

It really is the secret to success.

At least mine.